![]() ![]() Since his first full season in 2012, Lynn has failed to throw at least 170 innings just twice: in 2016, which he missed after having Tommy John surgery, and in 2018, when he signed late and struggled out of the gate after having skipped spring training. Lynn never reached the heights of many of his contemporaries and never flashed ace-quality stuff (at least until now), but he’s been one of the most consistently good pitchers of the 2010s. The Texas Rangers signed him to a three-year, $30 million deal this past offseason, a modest contract even by the extremely conservative standards of modern free agency, to be what he’d always been: a solid, reliable big league starter. He is 32 years old, and nothing in the more than 1,100 MLB innings he’d pitched before this year screamed “Cy Young contender.” He’d never received so much as a down-ballot vote before, and his one All-Star appearance came all the way back in 2012. One thing working against Lynn in the Cy Young race is reputation. Right now, Lynn has as good a case as anyone for the AL Cy Young. And even though he’s been extremely unlucky, based on batted-ball and sequencing luck, Lynn is ninth in the AL in ERA. He leads all qualified AL starters in DRA-, and despite not being a strikeout pitcher by reputation is ninth in the AL in K%. Lynn leads all AL starters in WARP and fWAR, and trails only his teammate Mike Minor in bWAR. Evaluations of baseball players almost always say as much about the speaker’s methodology as the players themselves, but insofar as such statements can be true or false, this one is not only provable but ought not to be particularly controversial. Other projection systems are a bit more conservative with Pivetta’s ERA but still project him to be around two to three wins above replacement.Lance Lynn has been the best pitcher in the American League this year. Perhaps even more importantly, Rhys Hoskins and Nick Williams have been replaced by Bryce Harper and Andrew McCutchen in the corner outfield positions.īaseball Prospectus’s PECOTA projection system projects Pivetta to finish the year with a 3.46 ERA, 2.4 wins above replacement, 1.18 WHIP, 168 strikeouts, 47 walks, and 148.2 innings pitched in 26 starts. This year, Pivetta will an adept defensive shortstop in Jean Segura along with a healthy Cesar Hernandez up the middle. This led to Pivetta having the highest batting average on balls in play among qualified pitchers, placing even more pressure on him. ![]() Pivetta falls under the category of a fly ball pitcher, so when he started last year, manager Gabe Kapler would be more comfortable starting Asdrubal Cabrera and Scott Kingery in the infield.
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